1 July 2012 Last updated at 10:07 ET


Turkey scrambles jets on Syria border

Turkey has scrambled a total of six F-16 fighters jets near its border with Syria, the country's armed forces command says.

The move came in response to three cases of Syrian military helicopters approaching the Turkish border, although there was no border violation, according to the statement.

Last month, Syrian forces shot down a Turkish jet in the border area.

The incident further strained already tense relations.

On Friday, Turkey said it had begun deploying rocket launchers and anti-aircraft guns along the border in response to the downing of its F-4 Phantom jet.

Turkey has strongly criticised Syria's response to the 16-month anti-government uprising, which has seen more than 30,000 Syrian refugees enter Turkey.

"The danger," he warns, "is that Iran will want to increase its revenues.

"What better than a mini-conflagration in the region to achieve that? If the general price of crude rockets, then surely Iran may command a higher renegotiated price for the crude it sells."




30 June 2012

Why US oil sanctions hurt Iran more than EU's
By Jonathan Marcus

BBC Diplomatic Correspondent

Stepped-up efforts by the European Union and the United States to hamper Iran's ability to export oil are moving into high gear.

The sanctions offensive by Brussels and Washington has had a significant impact upon Tehran.

Estimates vary, but analysts suggest that overall, Iran's oil exports could have been reduced by up to 1m barrels per day. That's some 40% down compared to average 2011 levels.

Accordingly Iran's revenues from oil sales are down too, though as yet there is no real indication that the sanctions are forcing a rethink in Tehran about its controversial nuclear activities.

On 1 July, a battery of EU sanctions come into force which prohibit imports of Iranian crude by any EU country. The EU used to account for some 23% of Iran's oil exports.

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In the medium term the market is increasingly looking over-supplied so further upward pressure on prices is unlikely ”

Prof Paul Stevens
Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House

What makes the reach of the EU sanctions even greater, is that no European company will now be allowed to provide any financial or insurance services to assist in the selling or transportation of Iranian oil and petroleum products.

This means that many shipping lines whose tankers' insurance is brokered in London will either have to seek alternative arrangements or cease carrying Iranian petroleum exports or crude altogether.

'Importers hurting'

This all comes on the back of a range of US measures which have sought to persuade the largest customers for Iranian oil in Asia to reduce their purchases.

China, India, Japan and South Korea have all scaled down purchases in recent months, with South Korea reportedly deciding to halt imports from Iran altogether from July.

The teeth in the US sanctions effort is the threat of measures against the financial institutions of any country perceived by Washington as not to be taking sufficient steps to reduce its dependence on Iranian oil.

This has prompted a rush to find alternative suppliers for at least part of their Iranian imports.

Accordingly the US has issued waivers to some 20 countries who have been reducing their purchases of Iranian crude, absolving them from financial sanctions, including most recently China and Singapore.

For some Europeans reducing their dependence upon Iranian oil has not been easy.

As Professor Paul Stevens, a senior research fellow at Chatham House notes, "the main importers of Iranian crude were Italy and Greece and both have been hurt".

Scramble for suppliers

"In particular," he says, "Greece has been hurt because it was receiving very favourable terms on its Iranian crude which no other supplier is likely to match."


South Korea, Asia's fourth-largest economy, is one of the biggest buyers of Iranian oil in the region
But Prof Stevens wonders if the impact has actually been wider.

"Arguably all of the EU", he told me, "has suffered because the announcement of the embargo immediately created transitional price friction in the global market.

"This was as EU importers scrambled to find alternative suppliers increasing oil prices by $10 to $15 per barrel."

Only in the last few weeks has this "embargo premium", as he calls it, begun to dissipate as new suppliers have been sorted out and Saudi Arabia in particular has increased its production.

So what then of the impact on oil prices once these new EU sanctions come into effect?

"There probably will be very little immediate price response," Prof Stevens says, since "the market has already absorbed the information".

"Much will depend upon Iran's reaction," he adds.

"However, I do not expect any fireworks (literally or metaphorically) immediately.

"In the medium term the market is increasingly looking over-supplied so further upward pressure on prices is unlikely."

So EU imports of Iranian oil are being halted and the far more significant pressure from the US is encouraging Iran's big Asian customers to reduce their purchases.

'Blame game'

But the collective sanctions, while certainly hitting the Iranian economy, do not appear to be having the desired political impact.

Nigel Kushner, of Whale Rock Legal, is a London-based lawyer specialising in sanctions matters.

He believes that the July EU sanctions are significant not so much because of the pressure they bring on Tehran, but "as a milestone that sanctions are not having the desired effect".

"There is also a sense of the EU shooting itself in the foot," he told me.

The EU were "dangling this oil ban threat over Iran's head in the hope that it would encourage them to negotiate in a meaningful manner. It failed".


He too believes that it is the US pressure rather than the EU measures that are really hurting Iran.

"The clout the EU has is dwarfed," he told me, "by the relative success the US has achieved in persuading those who buy Iranian crude to reduce purchases and drive the price down."

It is this US pressure, he argues, which is hurting Iran and reducing its foreign currency receipts.

"The danger," he warns, "is that Iran will want to increase its revenues.

"What better than a mini-conflagration in the region to achieve that? If the general price of crude rockets, then surely Iran may command a higher renegotiated price for the crude it sells."

So the tensions in the region could rise again. Many analysts are sceptical about the progress at the nuclear talks between Iran and the major powers.

One analyst, Trita Parsi, has described the diplomacy on Iran's disputed nuclear programme as being "on life support".

As the sanctions pressure bites, Iran and the other participants will have to decide if anything positive can come from the negotiations.

Mr Parsi believes that the "blame game", as he calls it, has already begun.

Could we again be looking at a long hot summer of tensions in the Gulf ?

17 July 2012 Last updated at 11:17


Syria conflict: Central Damascus hit by clashes

The BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes says unverified footage appears to show smoke rising from Damascus



Fighting is intensifying across the Syrian capital Damascus, where the military has deployed tanks and helicopters, activists say.

Shooting was reported in one of the main central streets and a square housing the Central Bank.

Rebel forces say they have launched an all-out assault on the capital, calling it Operation Damascus Volcano.

UN envoy Kofi Annan has held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow over the crisis.

Mr Putin told reporters after meeting Mr Annan that Russia still backed the envoy's six-point peace plan, which called for a ceasefire and talks between the government and opposition.

Russia and China have consistently refused to back any measures that hint at intervention in Syria, or ask for Mr Assad to step down.

Continue reading the main story
Analysis


Jim Muir
BBC News, Beirut
With international diplomacy virtually paralysed by big-power splits over how to tackle the Syrian crisis, the clashes in Damascus seem to have carried the conflict into a new phase.

The fighting in the capital may have started on Sunday as a case of security forces tackling armed rebels displaced by a crackdown on the suburbs. But the Free Syrian Army has now declared that Operation Damascus Volcano is under way. The Muslim Brotherhood, the biggest and most organised opposition group, has called it a "decisive battle" and urged all Syrians to join a nationwide civil insurrection.

The regime is clearly discomfited. With parts of the capital's centre paralysed, and thousands of residents displaced within the city limits, state media have dropped all mention of the Damascus fighting.

The UN has until Friday to renew the mandate for observers in Syria, and Western nations want the two nations to back tougher measures to stop the fighting.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has landed in Beijing, where he called for rapid unified action by the Security Council to tackle the crisis.

In other developments:

Defector Nawaf al-Fares tells the BBC the regime has colluded with al-Qaeda in bomb attacks, and would not hesitate to use chemical weapons if it is cornered
Iraq warns its citizens to flee the violence, hours after the bodies of two killed journalists were handed over by the Syrian authorities
'Decisive battle'
Violence is continuing to spread across Syria and in the capital Damascus as rebels - now better-equipped and more organised - confront the army and government-backed militia.

The rebel Free Syrian Army said it had launched Operation Damascus Volcano, and has called for an escalation of attacks on regime targets and the blocking of main roads all around the country.

One of the biggest and most organised opposition groups, the Muslim Brotherhood, has called on all Syrians to join what it called a decisive battle.

Witnesses say the government's military deployment in Damascus is the biggest since protests against President Bashar al-Assad's rule began in March last year.

Clashes were reported in a major thoroughfare, Baghdad Street, the first time fighting has reached central Damascus since the conflict began.

Continue reading the main story
Analysis


Frank Gardner
BBC security correspondent
Nawaf al-Fares does not look at first glance like a man who has just defected from a regime he calls "murderous criminals". Neatly dressed in suit and tie, he was until last week Syria's ambassador to Iraq and is the most senior diplomat to defect so far from the rule of President Bashar al-Assad. Sitting now in a luxury hotel in the Gulf state of Qatar, he piles one accusation after another against the regime he served for 34 years.

He accuses his former masters - without offering proof - of colluding with al-Qaeda to carry out mass-casualty bombings on its own citizens to discredit the opposition. He says the regime, if cornered further, "will not hesitate to use chemical weapons".

This is a serious allegation from a defector with some inside knowledge, but Mr Fares is not a scientist nor a soldier. And his words have disturbing echoes of the sort of claims being trumpeted about Saddam's mythical WMD in the run-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Nawaf Fares does of course have a vested interest in discrediting the regime which he has just deserted.

Assessing Syria defector's claims
Also, machine-gun fire was reported in nearby Sabaa Bahrat square, site of the Central Bank and scene of several major pro-government demonstrations.

Activists reported continued clashes on the south-western side of the city, including in Midan.

"The army is shelling al-Midan hysterically; the collapsing regime has gone mad," one activist told AFP.

Fighting is also said to have broken out on the other side, at Barzeh and Qaboun. Attack helicopters were seen there firing rockets for the first time since the uprising began.

Rebels told Reuters news agency they had shot down a helicopter in Qaboun.

State media said security forces were pursuing remnants of a "terrorist gang" in Nahr Eisha.

'Wounded wolf'
Syria is known to have a significant stockpile of chemical weapons. There have been growing concerns in neighbouring countries and among Western governments about the security of such weapons should the government fall.

Asked if he thought President Assad might use chemical weapons against the opposition, Mr Fares told BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner that he would not rule it out, describing Mr Assad as "a wounded wolf".

Mr Fares's claim that Sunni Muslim militants in al-Qaeda are collaborating with a government dominated by those from the minority Allawite sect will surprise many.

Challenged on his view that al-Qaeda was collaborating with the government despite this, Mr Fares said: "There is enough evidence in history that lots of enemies meet when their interests meet."


Nawaf Fares talks to the BBC's Frank Gardner
He added: "Al-Qaeda is searching for space to move and means of support, the regime is looking for ways to terrorise the Syrian people."

Mr Fares held senior positions in the ruling Baath Party and powerful security services, and served as governor in several provinces.

"It doesn't occur to any Syrian, not only me, that Bashar al-Assad will let go of power through political interventions... He will be ousted only by force," Mr Fares said.

Mr Fares was dismissive of Mr Annan's visit to Russia, saying success there was "impossible".

"Several months have passed and... the regime hasn't implemented a single article of [Kofi Annan's] plan."

it would seem a changing of the guard in syria the way the opposition is pointing only benefits the west. i can't see how iran could benefit at this point unless the west abandons the new govt.

18 July 2012 Last updated at 11:06 ET



Defence minister Daoud Rajihaappeared on Syrian TV regularly

Syria's defence minister, President Assad's brother-in-law and the head of the crisis management office have died in a suicide bombing, state TV says.

Daoud Rajiha, Assef Shawkat and Hassan Turkomani had been at a meeting at the national security HQ in Damascus.

No footage has yet emerged of the attack in which the national security chief and interior minister were also said to have been wounded.

It comes as rebels claim to have launched an offensive on the capital.


Analysis


Jim Muir
BBC News, Beirut
The Syrian crisis appears to have moved onto a new level.

In the space of two days, some of President Assad's inner circle of power, including his brother-in-law, have been killed, an army barracks overlooking the presidential palace has been engulfed in flames, and clashes have been moving closer to the heart of the capital.

It doesn't necessarily mean the end is imminent, as opposition circles and armed rebels on the ground clearly believe.

The battle for Damascus has barely begun. If it remains a purely military affair, the regime still has a daunting superiority in weaponry and manpower.

But with international diplomacy effectively paralysed, the pressure within the crisis seems to be building up, to an intensity where more surprises may be expected.

The rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) and a jihadist group calling itself Lord of the Martyrs Brigade both said they were behind the bombing.

As events in Damascus unfolded, UN and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan called for a delay to a Security Council vote on a Western-sponsored resolution threatening Syria with tougher sanctions.

'Criminal gangs'
The BBC's Lina Sinjab in Damascus says none of the windows of the national security building appears to be broken. There is no sign of extra security, she adds.

A statement by the armed forces read out on TV said Syria was "more determined than ever" to fight terrorism and wipe out "criminal gangs".

Whoever thinks that killing top commanders "can twist Syria's arm... is delusional", it said.

But the BBC's Jim Muir, in neighbouring Lebanon, says that the rebels now clearly believe that victory is within sight, and the deaths will give them even greater heart.

Security sources say the suspected bomber worked as a bodyguard for members of President Bashar al-Assad's inner circle.

Gen Rajiha had been defence minister for less than a year, serving previously as chief of staff, and was on a US blacklist for his role in the suppression of dissent.


The Syrian government's information minister Omran Zoab, said the attack was cowardly
He was believed to be an Orthodox Christian - a rarity in the Alawite-dominated Syrian military and government.

Gen Shawkat was considered a top security chief and a member of the inner circle of the regime. He was married to Mr Assad's sister Bushra.

Gen Turkomani was a former defence minister and assistant to the vice president as well as being in charge of President Assad's crisis management office.

The defence minister has been replaced by Gen Fahd Jassim al-Furayj, state TV reports, chief of staff of the armed forces.

'Damascus volcano'

Witnesses at the site of the bombing, in Rawda district, said journalists were banned from approaching.

"The terrorist explosion which targeted the national security building in Damascus occurred during a meeting of ministers and a number of heads of [security] agencies," the TV said.

The reports say that Hisham Ikhtiar, director the National Security Bureau, and Interior Minister Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar, were among those injured in the attack.

Continue reading the main story
Syria bomb attacks

23 Dec 2011 - 44 people killed in twin car bomb attacks in Damascus
10 Feb 2012 - 28 people killed as security compounds hit by two suicide car bombs in Aleppo
17 Mar - 27 people die in explosions in Damascus near intelligence and security buildings
10 May - Two suicide bombers blow themselves up outside military intelligence in Damascus killing 55
In pictures: Syrian capital under attack
Profiles of Assef Shawkat and Daoud Rajiha
Earlier, activists reported more clashes during the night in several areas around the south-west of Damascus.

They said the government had brought more troops and armour into some districts, and that several people had been killed in clashes and bombardments.

A rebel spokeswoman, Susan Ahmad, told the BBC the entrances to Damascus were closed on Wednesday morning.

"Now tanks are storming into al-Qaboun [district], shelling everything, shelling residential houses, shooting every moving thing and they are trying to arrest people and kill.

"People are trying to run away and get out of al-Qaboun."

Activists have also posted on the internet pictures of what they say is a barracks on the heights overlooking the city engulfed in flames.


Footage purporting to show a barracks overlooking the presidential palace on fire was posted on the internet
They believed it had been hit by fire from Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels, and said the barracks was involved in providing security for the presidential palace complex below.

State media said security forces fought off attacks by small groups of armed terrorists in the city.

But the TV carried night-time footage of troops deployed in the Midan quarter, in some very tense and deserted streets.

The rebels have declared a final battle for the capital, calling it Operation Damascus Volcano, and have been fighting troops in several parts of Damascus for the past three days.

The fighting reached central areas on Tuesday, with gunfire and plumes of smoke reported in a street near parliament.

The Free Syrian Army said the operation was well planned, and they had sent hundreds of fighters to the capital last week to be in place for the assault.

The rebels and the government often publish contradictory accounts of the same incidents.

Western journalists are under heavy restrictions in Syria, making it difficult to verify the claims of either side.

Diplomatic efforts

The UN Security Council had been due to vote on a new round of sanctions against Syria and Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov tweeted that there was a "dangerous pattern" of militant attacks coinciding with Security Council meetings on Syria.

UN chiefs, who have until Friday to renew the mandate for observers in Syria, have been trying to persuade China and Russia to agree tougher measures on Damascus.

Speaking at a news conference with his UK counterpart in Washington, US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said the situation appeared to be spiralling rapidly out of control.

Opposition groups say as many as 16,000 people have died in Syria since protests against President Assad began in March last year.

Syria's defence minister, President Assad's brother-in-law and the head of the crisis management office are killed in a suicide bombing, state TV says.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18887190


Key Points
Syria's Defence Minister Daoud Rajiha and his deputy, President Assad's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, have been killed in a blast in Damascus, state media report

Hassan Turkomani, the assistant to the vice-president, also died and other senior officials were injured in the blast at the National Security Building, says state TV

The reports come after days of fighting in the capital, and 16 after the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began
Syria has vowed to take revenge while at least two groups have claimed responsibility for the deaths, including the Free Syrian Army

The international envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan, has asked for a delay in the Security Council's vote on Syria, due to be held on Wednesday

18 July 2012 Last updated at 11:40 ET



By Jonathan Marcus
BBC Diplomatic Correspondent


Defence Minister Daoud Rajiha (left) and Asef Shakat, President Assad's brother-in-law, reportedly died in the attack

The reported attack in Damascus could mark an important symbolic turning point in the struggle to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

The claim that a bomber was able to carry out such an attack against a high security target speaks volumes about the government's ability to protect its own members and raises questions about the broader capacities of Syria's "security state".

Caution, though, is still needed.

Details of the event are sketchy, contested, and rely upon elements all with their own axes to grind.

Why, according to reliable witnesses, does the building where the bomb apparently went off appear to be undamaged? Why has Syrian government TV refrained from showing its usual lurid images of the casualties?

Conspiracy theorists may have a field-day, but there is one inescapable fact.

The news put out by the Syrian government of a rebel attack against the very heart of the regime cannot be interpreted as anything other than a disaster for President Assad and his supporters.

It sends out a message that if these men cannot be protected by the state security apparatus, then who can? It is in this sense that the attack marks a new phase in the struggle for Syria's future.

'Slow' diplomacy
As the level of senior defections from the Syrian military continues and as the fighting encroaches on key areas of the capital Damascus, many analysts believe that it is now not so much a question of "if" the Syrian regime collapses from within, but "when".


Syria bomb attacks

23 Dec 2011 - 44 people killed in twin car bomb attacks in Damascus
10 Feb 2012 - 28 people killed as security compounds hit by two suicide car bombs in Aleppo
17 Mar - 27 people die in explosions in Damascus near intelligence and security buildings
10 May - Two suicide bombers blow themselves up outside military intelligence in Damascus killing 55


No wonder, then, the warning from US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta that the crisis in Syria risks spiralling out of control.

While the Syrian military with its artillery, tanks and air power still retains the overwhelming preponderance of firepower, there are growing indications that its actual performance on the ground is less than impressive.

Western sources indicate that the army in some areas is having to move troops by helicopter since the roads are so dangerous.

Nobody should be under the impression, though, that this is simply about President Assad himself and his immediate associates.

The months of bitter fighting have introduced a nasty sectarian edge to the conflict. Mr Assad's Alawite supporters have nowhere to go, raising fears of continuing sectarian violence in the country even if the president himself were to be forced from office.

Amidst this background, international diplomatic efforts appear to be turning in the void.

The UN is seeking a new resolution to try to apply practical sanctions against the Assad regime if the president does not agree to a peace plan.

Russia - for reasons which have as much to do with its own approach to international affairs and its concerns about non-interference by the West, as it does to any affinity with the Assad family - has set itself firmly against such a step, offering up instead its own resolution that would extend the mandate for UN monitors.

But - in the absence of any ceasefire - quite what their role might be is unclear.

Events on the ground are driving this crisis. Diplomacy is struggling to keep up.

By Frank Gardner and James Longman

BBC Security Correspondent and BBC reporter

An activist depicts President Bashar al-Assad as a man with blood on his hands.

As the flames of rebellion lick ever closer to Syria's embattled President Bashar al-Assad, the noose of economic sanctions grows steadily tighter on him and his regime.

After 16 rounds of sanctions, starting in May 2011, the European Union has now proscribed a total of 129 individuals and 49 companies, seeking to freeze their assets wherever it can find them.

In the UK, some £100m of Syrian regime assets, mostly cash held in bank accounts, has been frozen over the last 14 months.

On Wednesday, the US Treasury Department announced new measures against 29 members of the Assad regime, including four ministers and the governor of the central bank, as it sought to harmonise its sanctions list with that of the EU.


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They can use some of the most complex structures to conceal and move their assets”

Iain Willis
Alaco
"The Assad family has been controlling Syria for more than 30 years," Syria's most senior defector to date, the former ambassador Nawaf Fares, told the BBC in Qatar this week.

"They are in control of security, the economy, and all the other resources, and they have misappropriated lots of the resources of the Syrian people.

"I am convinced that the Assad family owns countless assets. Syria is a very rich country - it has gas, petrol and other resources, and the family has been looting the country for decades."

Syrian kleptrocracy

The Assad family may have been in power since 1970, but the man of most interest to asset trackers is Rami Makhlouf, cousin of the president with close links to the military and security networks and perhaps the richest man in Syria.

His sprawling business empire is said to control up to 60% of the Syrian economy.

"You have got to think of Syria as a kleptocracy," says a British financial investigator who asked not to be named, "where the state hands out licences to its friends and close relatives."


Rami Makhlouf, cousin of President Assad and perhaps the richest man in Syria, has close links to the military and security networks

Global assets

The millions that have been frozen in the UK make up just a fraction of the regime's estimated global wealth, according to Iain Willis, head of research at the London-based business intelligence firm Alaco.

"In terms of realisable assets, it's likely to be in the region of $1-$1.5bn (£600m-£900m)," he says, "held across the wider family, not just Assad himself, but by the extended family, by second cousins, uncles, business partners and their advisors.

"The likely location for those funds to be held is probably via places like Russia, maybe Dubai, Lebanon, Morocco, even Hong Kong, but the assets themselves are likely to be worldwide."

'Flee clauses'
Finding a proscribed regime's assets is not easy.

They tend to be hidden behind complex layers using different names and brass-plate addresses in remote offshore tax havens.

"People in this sort of position... have access to some of the best advice," says Mr Willis.

"They can use some of the most complex structures to conceal and move their assets that include things like shell companies held often through trusts, held via lawyers.

"Even using some of the more obscure techniques of offshore asset management, they may have access to companies and corporations that include 'flee clauses' that mean that the company is automatically closed and re-domiciled the moment the first question is asked about the existence of the company."

Complex links

Locating a regime's assets is only the beginning.

A link then has to be proved with the proscribed regime's individuals.

Ambrose Carey, one of the directors at the business intelligence firm Alaco, recalls hunting for Saddam Hussein's assets back in the 1990s.

"It was generally known that Saddam Hussein was a major investor in a French publishing group. Indeed his estate was valued at something like $100m.

"But actually proving the link was extremely difficult.

"You had a company called Montana registered in Panama, but domiciled at a lawyer's office in Geneva, before ultimately connecting with a Saddam front man, but never ultimately to Saddam himself."

Russian shelter

And there is another hurdle.

When sanctions are not applied universally through United Nations Security Council resolutions, there will always be a legitimate bolthole for a regime's funds.

With Colonel Gaddafi of Libya last year it was easy, say asset trackers.

The Libyan state had some £12bn of assets in the UK, which could be quickly frozen under UN sanctions.

But Syria's regime, although sanctioned by the European Union and the US Treasury, is not subject to the same global measures.

Banks in the Middle East have reportedly come under increasing pressure from Washington to give up their Syrian regime assets.

But according to some investigators, the Assad family secured much of their fortune some time ago in a place beyond the reach of the EU and the US - namely Russia.

Syria's rebels score a direct hit.

BY MITCHELL PROTHERO | JULY 18, 2012

Click here for rare photos of the other side of Syria's civil war.


BEIRUT – No one really saw this coming. That is, no one except for the handful of Syrian rebels who executed the startling July 18 bombing in Damascus that claimed the lives of Syria's top intelligence and security officials. But the shockwaves of this assassination have already reverberated across the Middle East, leading political players of all stripes to contemplate the possibility of President Bashar al-Assad's imminent demise.




Confirmed dead in the explosion, which Syrian state media blames on a suicide bomber but Free Syrian Army officials insist was caused by a remote-detonated device, are Defense Minister Dawood Rajiha; his "deputy" Asef Shawkat, Assad's brother-in law and one of the regime's most feared strongmen; and Assistant Vice President Hassan Turkmani, a former Defense Minister.

After more than a year of being shelled by the regime's well-equipped military and terrorized by gangs of pro-regime military thugs, the Syrian rebels' attack was the equivalent of blowing up the Death Star: They not only decapitated the Assad regime's top security officials, they sent a message that they could reach anyone -- and any part of the country. Even if the belief that Assad could fall any day is overblown (and with such limited access inside Syria it's impossible to know for sure) -- it is clear that his hold on power is shakier than ever.

Syrian state media's account of the attack focused on the "martyrdom" of Rajiha, but Shawkat -- who only merited a single line in that same announcement -- is the real story here. The defense minister, who hailed from the Greek Orthodox community, was widely considered an affirmative action hire -- someone meant to keep Syria's Christian minority on the side of the regime. Shawkat, on the other hand, is a true insider. He has run Syria's feared military intelligence services, which is probably the only institution still trusted on any level by loyalists, and was in charge during the last gasps of Syria's occupation of Lebanon. He also often acted as a regime fireman, parachuting into trouble areas to quell dissent. Despite much resistance from some members of the Assad family to his marriage, Shawkat regularly amazed Syria observers with his ability to navigate the opaque power struggles and often-deadly intrigue that comes part and parcel with the Assad family dictatorship.

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The Other Side of Syria's Civil War
Syria's rebels responded with unrestrained glee, filming celebrations around Syria for YouTube and fielding phone calls from journalists in Lebanese safe houses, where they openly expressed pride in the operation. The real prize was Shawkat: Rebel officials tell FP that despite his sometimes rocky history with his in-laws -- it's rumored that Maher al-Assad, the president's brother, once shot him during a family meal -- Shawkat's dedication to the regime once again made him an indispensible and trusted enforcer at a time when the Assad clan has seen key allies abandon them.

"Shawkat and Maher have been in charge of crushing the revolution," said a Free Syrian Army official in Lebanon who goes by the nom de guerre Abu Ahmad. "They can't trust the Sunnis in the army after thousands of defections and this regime always turns to its own blood when it is time to protect the regime."

It's not only the assassination that is bolstering the Syrian opposition's morale. The rebels have also sustained four days of fighting in the capital, which had previously seen only limited clashes and smaller demonstrations as the rest of Syria descended into civil war. Furthermore, in numerous meetings with anti-regime fighters in Lebanon over the past several months, it has become abundantly clear that new financing and equipment have reached the once shabby rebel army units.

"This regime is so rotten that even their own supporters sell us weapons," one rebel commander in a village along the border with Lebanon told me. "We never needed weapons from outside countries like America or Saudi -- we needed money. Syria has plenty of weapons already and these guys are so corrupt that they profit by selling us the weapons we will later use to kill them."

"Now we have money," he concluded, before demurring about the source of the generosity.

Across the border in Lebanon, which rightfully watches events unfold in Syria like its future could depend on the outcome, reaction to the assassination depended on one's political loyalties.

Sheikh Ahmad al-Assir, a conservative Sunni cleric currently engaged in a political standoff in the Lebanese city of Sidon with Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian allies, has emerged in the last month as a key critic of the Lebanese government's neutrality on the Syria question. In a wide-ranging interview, I asked the cleric -- whom critics have painted as an al Qaeda-style radical -- about his feelings towards the Syrian revolution next door.

"The Syrian regime will fall," he said. "And it will have an impact in Lebanon, but I doubt Hezbollah will resort to violence over it. I expect they will push out politically to protect themselves from the loss of their allies in Damascus. But, God willing, we will not see sectarian violence."

Assir may be right -- but as he well knows, there are no guarantees. The revolt in Syria has already been felt on multiple levels in Beirut, notably leading to street clashes in May. The Assad regime's brutal crackdown has exacerbated sectarian tensions between the pro-Assad parties that dominate the Shiite community and Lebanese Sunnis who have long resented Syria's domination of Lebanon. Assir himself has made waves in the Lebanese media by directly criticizing Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, which most Lebanese hesitate to do out of respect, fear, or both. Several weeks ago, supporters of Nasrallah attacked a local television station for daring to broadcast an interview with Assir in which he directly challenged both Nasrallah and his Shiite ally Nabih Berrih, who heads the Amal Movement.

Assir worries that the Alawite-dominated Syrian government's efforts to cling to power will only further radicalize its Sunni opponents.

"Now as we see the regime ready to fall, I worry that the Alawites will be persecuted over personal vendettas," he said. "I speak with many leaders of the Syrian revolution and they do not want this. They have moderate minds and do not hate a group, only the regime. But even they admit that so much violence has made this a personal war and they might not be able to stop the Alawites from great suffering once the regime falls. I hope this does not happen, but I fear it is too late to stop it."

Assad's allies in Lebanon, however, are not about to concede defeat. An hour and a half after my interview with Assir, back in Beirut, my car stopped to pick up several supporters and members of Hezbollah. Nasrallah has consistently argued for the survival of the Assad regime, which he describes as a great friend to Hezbollah -- and he did it again in a speech Wednesday night, praising the assassinated Syrian officials and hailing the Syrian government as "a real military supporter of the resistance."

An argument immediately broke out between the four men as they entered the car about the implications of the news of the bombing. One cadre member I have known for years was arguing that the regime was finished and that Hezbollah had a contingency plan, while his friends -- supporters but not official members of the group -- seemed skeptical.

"How could they have killed Shawkat?" one supporter demanded of his friend, a member of Hezbollah's military wing. "Did the regime have him killed and want to blame terrorists?"

"You know these Salafis," the Hezbollah guy said, citing a common refrain that the rebels are al Qaeda members backed by the United States and Israel. "They use suicide bombings and can reach anyone if they want to."

"Hezbollah has a plan," he added. "The party knows that the regime can now fall and has a plan to protect Lebanon from these people if it does."

I asked if, in the case of a rebel victory, Hezbollah expects that the mostly Sunni victors will take the war to the powerful Shiite group that dominates much of Lebanon. The car grew quiet as my question was translated for all to hear.

"Of course they will," he said. "These people are crazy. But we are ready for them."

And maybe they are -- at least, in the short term. But the war in Syria has all the makings of a nasty sectarian conflict that will rebound around the Middle East for years to come. The Syrian regime's propaganda that the rebels are nothing more than a group of Saudi and Israeli-backed jihadist nutters is just that -- propaganda. But just because the rebels aren't al Qaeda guys frothing at the mouth for the blood of Christians and Alawites doesn't mean they're cuddly Ewoks either. And it's not just about religion: As we have seen in Libya, those who pick up weapons with the intention of fighting to the death to protect their homes rarely just go home and retire. They are deeply changed by having killed in the name of survival, and they want power -- if only to prevent feeling so helpless ever again.

But for the first time in this long conflict, Assad's opponents are allowing themselves a glimmer of optimism. After the interview with Assir, the Sunni sheikh was walking me to my car when a phone call arrived with the news of the bomb. After I told him it appeared that Shawkat and Rajiha had been killed, Assir -- who consistently preached nonviolence in our interview -- allowed a grin to erupt across his bearded face.

Reaching out to bump my hand in the classic "terrorist fist jab" that President Barack Obama once gave his wife after a speech, Assir quietly predicted the fall of the Syrian regime.

"God willing, by the end of Ramadan," he said, referring to the holy month that begins in a few short days. "God willing."