According to researchers at North Carolina State University, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will see the formation of 17 to 21 named storms in the Atlantic basin.

The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea. Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The number of named storms forecast is above the long-term average, Lian Xie, a professor of marine, terrestrial and atmospheric sciences, said in a statement. The long-term average (1951 to 2021) of named storms is 11.

Of the 17 to 21 named storms forecast, seven to nine may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with three to five storms possibly becoming major hurricanes.

The Gulf of Mexico will see an active hurricane season. However, more in line with historical averages, as data from Xie indicates the likelihood of three to six named storms forming in the region, of which two to five will become hurricanes and one to two becoming significant hurricanes. The historical averages for the Gulf are three named storms and one hurricane.

Xie’s methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on hurricane positions and intensity in the Atlantic Ocean and other variables, including weather patterns and sea surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin.