The to-and-fro between believing and not believing in survey results in the country

Santo Domingo – In spite of the successes, even resounding ones, that have crowned polls of recognized agencies that measure electoral tendencies, tenacious leaders of different factions dissatisfied with polls have insisted on abhorring adverse figures without taking into account that at the end of the road the polls could reaffirm the measurements distorting their words. Those who today celebrate indexes that project them towards the top are the ones who for previous four-year periods underestimated the credibility and even the suitability of the percentages that at the time were harshly hitting them in the face.

It is statistically probable that last minute impacts on previous positions assumed by citizens may modify in an important way the order of placement of the candidates in the final balance because the theory of probabilities will always admit abrupt alignments of preferences due to forceful turns of events.

It is recalled that historians have attributed the defeat of the National Civic Union, which nominated Viriato Fiallo for the presidency in December 1962, to what was broadcast less than 24 hours before when in a TV program his rival Juan Bosch got rid of the label of communist, which his questioner in the transmission space, Father Láutico García, attributed to him and which he publicly withdrew. To tell the truth, Bosch had already fascinated the masses with his successful way of communicating with them with a language of the people and as a forceful radio speaker. The final push was given by the certification of his incompatibility with Marxism-Leninism.

And indeed: everything can vary in the opinion of historian Bernardo Vega, who represents the accredited polling firm Mark Penn/Stagwell, which has repeatedly predicted President Luis Abinader as the winner of the next elections. However, he considered that the President’s advantage could be affected by international phenomena that affect the Dominican economy. He recalled that a year ago, a certain percentage of voters told pollsters that they had not fixed their position up to that moment. Then 39% of citizens consulted still considered themselves independent even if they sympathize with some party. A high level.

STANDING DENIALS
The most determined to challenge, and even discredit the pollsters, has been former President Danilo Medina. The man who ordered to destroy by hook or by crook the tents to seduce voters who could appear before the polling stations has radically said: “all the pollsters are bought by the Government”, reason for which his party abstained from hiring polls for the definition of its proselytizing strategies.

And something else: the former president issued at the beginning of this year the prediction that the elections of the following February would radically deny that the PLD is weakened. Out of 158 municipalities at stake in these past elections, the Partido Revolucionario Moderno won 121 mayorships over its opponents of the Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD) which won 16; the Fuerza del Pueblo won 6 and the Partido Revolucionario Dominicano won a “consolation prize”: only one. Abstentions did not prove to be decisive.

With equal faith in his own cause, the former president and candidate for the presidency, Leonel Fernandez, based on his particular “perception” to consider himself a sure winner and his last prediction given on Wednesday was that he would have President Luis Abinader descend the steps of the National Palace on August 16, defeated. He invoked to lend credibility to his assertion the result of an unspecified sponsored poll which gave him as the winner in a second round after Abinader failed to reach 50% plus one of the votes in the first phase on the 19th of this month.

The study he cited was applied by Imagen Pública Consulting, a native company based in Gustavo Mejía Ricart Avenue, mainly oriented, according to its own words, to “create or modify the public image of individuals and institutions through the elaboration and design of Business Master Plans to achieve a better positioning of their own public image”. Politics does not seem to be his forte, and he confesses to resorting to “rescue techniques” for clients who need to stand out as his main specialty.

Self-perceptions” have been made fashionable by the opposition. While fulminatingly disavowing the latest polls which place him in last place, the PLD candidate, Abel Martinez, affirmed that the real electoral result will be seen on election day when the people will come out to vote in his favor. “I think we still have to keep working and on May 19 then it is that it will be decided at the polls. What we are seeing in the streets is different from the numbers and figures. What we are seeing in the streets is that people are determined to make a change, but a real change,” he said.

THE GOOD VIEW
Regarding previous elections, political scientist Candido Mercedes understands that the Dominican experience tips the balance towards the recognition that when judging pollsters, it is necessary to separate the meek from the maroons and to recognize the professionalism and suitability of those whose predictions have been correct. At a local level, Gallup, a worldwide prestigious firm, has reached its thirtieth year of successfully releasing in advance the percentages of citizen acceptance of the candidates.

He explained that the most reputable and accurate firms in this country have been those hired by the media, such as Greenberg, Mark Penn and Gallup, which are also the ones that comply with the provisions of the Electoral Law, because they disclose who finances them and the questionnaires they use in polls are free of ambiguities that lend themselves to the manipulation of the findings.

In this regard, Bernardo Vega recalled that Mark Penn, which he represents locally, and Gallup, are the ones that have been operating in the country for the most years, following international standards to do their work and formulate their predictions with a high level of accuracy. The honor of getting it right is also claimed by the Centro Económico del Cibao, which challenges them to prove that it has ever failed. Following a recent poll it predicted that President Luis Abinader would win the next elections with 63.5% of the votes over his closest rival who would be Leonel Fernandez with 20.6%. Let’s take him at his word.

USEFUL TOOL
A major benefit that politicians can receive from polls would come from using them as research tools to collect data such as opinions and attitudes of groups of people to serve as a basis for making decisions that impact voter perception. But the popularity of polls is to use them to know the trends of acceptance among competing candidates.

In this regard, in the University Portal “QuestionPro” available in the digital universe, it is recommended to politicians that in order to obtain votes at the polls, they resort to surveys to know what citizens think or feel during the course of the electoral processes. “The secret of surveys is that thanks to them we can turn qualitative data into quantitative data.”

To solve the problem that the samples to be taken could be considered unrepresentative due to material and time limitations to reach the largest number of potential voters, he raises the possible solution that (probably already used in some countries and even here) which consists of applying polls mainly on digital platforms where users can receive questionnaires by different means such as emails and social networks. “Thanks to online surveys it has been possible to increase sample sizes to deliver more accurate results.” Perfectionists insist on doubting that with the resource of consulting a reduced number of people randomly, it can be effectively projected what the majority will prefer electorally.