Mexico’s GDP per capita falls below China and the Dominican Republic

Mexico’s GDP per capita has fallen below that of China and the Dominican Republic, reversing a position it held in the 1990s, according to economic experts. The warning was issued by Ernesto Revilla, Citigroup’s chief economist for Latin America, during the 2026 Economic Outlook Seminar organized by ITAM.

Revilla explained that in 1990 Mexico’s GDP per capita was well above that of both China and the Dominican Republic. By 2020, the three economies were at similar levels, and by 2024, Mexico was already around 10% below both countries. He attributed this decline mainly to Mexico’s persistent low economic growth, noting that during the administration of former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, average GDP growth was just 0.9%, resulting in virtually no per capita income growth over the past six years.

Looking ahead, Revilla said that even with projected growth of 0.3% in 2025 and around 1% in 2026, the government led by President Claudia Sheinbaum would average 1.5% GDP growth over the coming years—still below Mexico’s economic potential. He stressed that uncertainty surrounding the USMCA, weak external conditions, limited public investment, and low returns on government spending have continued to weigh on economic performance.

Despite these challenges, Revilla noted that a modest recovery could occur in 2026, supported by a more favorable environment, gradual normalization of investment after a deep contraction in 2025, and expectations of a renegotiation of the USMCA that could unlock new investment flows. He also highlighted positive factors such as a recovering labor market, low unemployment, continued support from social programs, and remittances—although growing more slowly—which continue to bolster household consumption.