Santiago unprepared for earthquake stronger than magnitude 7, study finds

Santiago de los Caballeros.- A city with a population of more than one million people would be unable to withstand an earthquake exceeding magnitude 7, according to a study conducted by a group of engineering professionals on its seismic vulnerability. The report warns that the impact of such an event would be catastrophic, leading to widespread structural collapse, significant loss of life, and severe economic damage.

The study estimates that a 7.5-magnitude earthquake could cause approximately 2,600 deaths, more than 97,000 injuries, and the collapse or demolition of at least 6,200 homes and buildings. Material losses are projected to exceed US$10 billion. Experts also highlight critical response limitations, including insufficient cemetery space, a shortage of forensic pathologists, difficulties accessing drinking water, and major disruptions to communications.

According to the engineers, the city currently lacks the capacity to effectively respond to an earthquake of this magnitude, prompting an urgent call for disaster preparedness and planning. The report was prepared by engineers Ervin Vargas, Luis Peña, Erick Mercedes, Arcadio Rodríguez, and Ashley Morales, with Vargas—former president of the Northern Regional branch of the Dominican College of Engineers and Architects (CODIA)—emphasizing the need for rapid-response mechanisms to reduce human and material losses.

The commission noted that work is already underway to inventory available resources, including personnel, equipment, tools, facilities, and vehicles from both public and private institutions. However, they stressed that implementing an effective national preparedness plan will require funding from the central government and its adoption as a permanent state policy, especially given the city’s history of devastating earthquakes, such as those that once completely destroyed areas of La Vega province.